Amateur German m&period

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Amateur German m&period

The whole idea that criticism is valid only if the entire problem is reworked by the critic is a hilarious evasion.

Thanks for that clarification, Mike. Again I say, the waxing and waning and moving into and out of phase is immaterial to the periodogram.

As you suggest, here is example. Here are a couple of sine waves moving into and out of phase. You can see that they have the typical pattern that we are discussing, waxing and waning over time as they move into and out of syncronization.

If applying a moving average filter to random data produces an oscillatory output, then the filter is ill designed for the application.

This is yet another effect well known to engineers that is coming to light in other areas. The spatial filtering applied by the neural net software used for pattern recognition that resulted in hallucinatory appearances of buildings and dogs faces in clouds and other photographs is yet another example of emphasising a pattern, where no pattern exists, simply because you have looked too hard for it turned up the gain.

Leo, this is why I ask people to quote what they object to. What is the MA in ARMA?? Putting aside the fact that MA is a very bad filter to choose, I found your comment about negative MA being common is climate data interesting.

It probably reflects long term negative feedbacks dominating the system. F10,7 is perfectly entitled, as it relates to changes in the UV and is not consistent with the number of spots.

The amount of spots and F10,7 differ from each other. For the last twenty years, EUV irradiance has diverged significantly from the F This effect is directly observed by increased space junk accumulation and less drag on satellites, for example.

What your fig 6 shows is a strong 9y peak in the latter half and two smaller peaks at 8 and 10y in the full dataset. It is very possible that this is the same 9y periodicity being split into two peaks by it being modulated by another climate effect.

Converting back to periods that gives 9y modulated by 80y. I think this should be detectable in the monthly data and that would give sufficient frequency resolution to be more accurate about the long term modulation.

I think your analysis of the actual data shows there is more likely a lunar driver in NAO than a solar one.

Much of the false attribution to solar cycles is due to not recognising the lunar contribution and confounding it with solar when they work in unison and ignoring the times when they oppose each other and the solar thing does not work.

Much of the false attribution to solar cycles is due to not recognising the lunar contribution and confounding it with solar when they work in unison.

Hi Peter, discussed here a few years ago. Scafetta also reports similar frequency and demonstrates from JPL ephemeris that it is lunar.

IMO it is failure to resolve a mix of 8. Mike, I have also found a 9. I propose that the 9. With this type of model, it is not so much in what years do the lunar tides reach their maximum strength, but whether or not there are peaks in the strength of the lunar tides that re-occur at the same time within the annual seasonal cycle.

Wilson, I. This study identifies significant peaks in the spectrum of LSA at 9. In addition, it shows that the 9. Greg was aware of my earlier work in , where I effectively came to the same general conclusion.

The presence of this strong 9 year cycle will confound attempts to detect the solar signal unless it is recognised.

When the two are in phase working together the lunar effect will give an exaggerated impression of the scale of the solar signal and when they are out of phase the direct relationship between SSN and temperatures breaks down, leading many to conclude that any such linkage is erroneous or a matter of wishful thinking by less objective observers.

Such long term tidal or inertial effects can shift massive amounts of water and hence energy in and out of the tropics and polar regions.

Complex interactions of these cycles with others, such as the variations in solar influence, create external inputs to the climate system, with periods of decadal and centennial length.

It is essential to recognise and quantify these effects rather than making naive and unwarranted assumptions that any long term changes in climate are due to one simplistic cause such as the effects of trace gas like CO2.

Mike: What your fig 6 shows is a strong 9y peak in the latter half and two smaller peaks at 8 and 10y in the full dataset. Maybe, but the burden of proof is on the claimant in science.

How could you demonstrate, given that these data have been selected and that many models have already been tried, that you are not merely building on a non-reproducing adventitious pattern in a graph?

To me, the answer is Only by clearly modeling the behavior over the next few decades, and then showing as the data accumulate that the model has been accurate.

Notice also that, on this hypothesis, the data have been recorded over at most 1 full period of the oscillation of the pair of processes.

Unless the period has been clearly hypothesized in advance of studying the data, it is unlikely that any of the statistical analyses produce reliable results.

The actual planetary-wide lunar signal is clearly visible in the historical data: Ian R. Wilson, Nikolay S. Piss off, and come back when you are not starting out by making ad hominems my experience.

Starting out by insulting the person you are discussing things with is counterproductive, foolish, and very revealing about how strong you think your case is.

A man only throws mud when he is out of scientific ammunition … And while you are at it, your claim about periodograms is simply wrong.

See my explanation and graphs above. Doing so from the safety of your keyboard is pathetic and cowardly. Neither do I think it is the kind of conduct expected of users of this site.

You walked in and started off your post by disparaging my level of experience. Yes, you are right, that is both pathetic and cowardly.

So I slapped your face. And your claim about periodograms is still wrong. Lacking experience is not something to be ashamed of or perceive as an insult and it was not intended to be one.

That is in your own head. Your vulgar, over the top reaction reveals you are hyper-sensitive to that sort of criticism which reveals your insecurity.

Despite having made it your pass time to rip into authors of published papers pointing out their ignorance and mistakes, often in the most unsubtle and impolite ways recent Shaviv incident for example , you are unable to take even the most well-mannered criticism yourself.

You just showed everyone what a jerk you can be, just in case they have not noticed your track record. Rather than admit you over-reacted, you make a disingenuous attempt to justify yourself.

Very impressive. Despite having made it your pass time [sic] to rip into authors of published papers pointing out their ignorance and mistakes, often in the most unsubtle and impolite ways recent Shaviv incident for example , you are unable to take even the most well-mannered criticism yourself.

I think your lack of experience in periodic analysis is leading to jump to incorrect conclusions. Of course you did.

Nobody likes to be told they lack experience. And because you made that insult the very first sentence of your comment, it was clear that you were here to harass rather than to discuss.

Which is why I slapped your face. Mike, one more point. I had wrongly said that Nir Shaviv and his co-authors were deceptive. This was incorrect, impromer, unwarranted, unfounded, and over the top.

When I realized what I had done, I apologized sincerely to Dr. Shaviv and his co-authors for what I had said. And I admit whenever asked that I was wrong.

Now … what more would you have me do, Mike? Long period is close to y, nothing around 60y. There is a notable peak at Like I said above, unless we recognise the lunar signal it will confound all efforts to detect a possible solar signal and lead to either false attribution or false negation.

I should emphasise that the long periodicity is very unreliable due to the length of the data.

There is significant change on that time-scale but the period should not be taken seriously. It cannot be reliably estimated by Fourrier type techniques.

Neither is there any reason to regard it as periodic change in the sense that it is repetitive. There may be a pattern in winter data that is not present all year round.

You are being typically dismissive without even thinking about what I wrote. Let me try again:. If the data goes up a bit and down again in 80 there will be an 80 cmpt in the FA.

That is part of the description of that limited segment of data. That does not mean that it is cyclic in the sense that it did the same thing prior to the data or will continue to do it in the future.

If you took time to read before firing off you would not look so foolish. In the DJF series I find a peak at 86y which is close to the modulation of circa 80y indicated by the strong peaks around 8 and 10y.

Since it has been reduced to annual data by the seasonal snipping process there is little resolution in the spectrum.

This may well be a result of the windowing function applied during the analysis. This is effectively modulating the data!

As you said above, the long cycles like your claimed 86 year cycle are not reliable in the slightest.

So your continued pushing of those cycles merely reveals that your agenda is more important to you than your science … You need at least three, and preferably four, full cycles to say anything about what is going on, and often that is not long enough.

For example, look at the differences in the cycles in the first and second halves of the data, each of which are 58 years in length. A strong 9 year cycle shows up in one … but not in the other, and 56 years is about 6 full cycles of nine-year data.

So you blathering on about 86 year cycles and 80 year cycles and such is totally meaningless. There is a very clear peak at 22y in the DJF data.

The authors may have masked out the real solar signal by their preconceived ideas that it should been seen at 11y. Mike, if you are indeed finding significant correlation with either the 22 year solar magnetic cycle or the interplay of the 11 year solar sunspot and the lunar cycle, a full blog post would be much appreciated.

I would love to see a correlation that actually stands up upon serious analysis. I am not sure why you find that surprising?

No other parameter of the Sun comes close to that metric. Those who purport to say there is one always, ALWAYS, add a nefarious amplification process not clearly articulated even CO2 needs an amplification device.

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Ook vissers brachten vondsten naar boven. De tempelresten liggen naar verluidt niet meer in situ. In wideangle lenses, the focussing with floating elements is not 'internal focus' per se, but is used to correct aberrations as the lens is focused closer.

In this case the focal length often becomes longer, but can be shorter as well. In retro focus lenses, an increase in focal length is more common.

The lens will usually become longer the closer the lens is focussed, as that doesn't matter as much with wide-angle lenses.

In any case, what effect the floating correction group or groups have on focal length is not consistent. I used to shoot Zeiss primes years ago when I shot Canon pro DSLRs.

They were amazingly better than my Canon L zooms at that time. Four years ago, I sold my Canon gear and moved to Fuji X.

I immediately purchased the Zeiss 32 and 12mm primes for Fuji. They were nice lenses, but the Zeiss look was missing. I eventually sold them as Fuji XF primes became available.

I still use my Fuji X system which includes the most current bodies, the XH1 and XT3, along with excellent Fuji WR primes and zooms. It's a great versatile system with excellent IQ and durability.

The lesser size, weight and cost as compared to the Canon system I owned is great too. In December of , I purchased my first Leica, the M10, and a few Leica primes.

The Leica glass is excellent and the images I produce have the sharpness, micro contrast and IQ that is worthy of the mystic and expense of the Leica system.

Because I bought into the Leica system for the Leica lenses, I have not tried Zeiss lens on my M10 and I probably won't. Please check out my fine art and travel photography at www.

It is hard to beat Canon L glass, even with Leica made glass. Every time I look at pictures taken with Canon and L I'm realizing it.

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